The 45th General Federal Election is set to take place on April 28, 2025.
The Assembly of First Nations (AFN) has identified 36 federal ridings across Canada where First Nations electors could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2025 election. This analysis is based on Census 2021 population data and Elections Canada voting results from the 2021 federal election.
Key findings include:
25 ridings have more First Nations electors than the margin of victory from the 2021 election (the difference between the winning candidate and the runner-up).
19 ridings have First Nations electors making up at least 10% of the total eligible voters.
The 2025 election will be the first to be held under the new 2023 Representation Orders, which adjusted 338 electoral districts and introduced five new ridings (three in Alberta, one in Ontario, and one in British Columbia).
The analysis shows that in these 36 key ridings, First Nations electors could have a significant impact on the election’s outcome, as their votes could influence the margin of victory. These ridings span across multiple provinces and territories, including British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, Yukon, and the Northwest Territories.
The newly drawn boundaries in some areas, resulting from the 2023 Representation Orders, have increased the influence of First Nations electors in certain districts.
For more information, visit the AFN website at www.afn.ca, where the full analysis titled “First Nations Voters Can Decide the 2025 Federal Election Outcome” is available.
For additional election details, visit Elections Canada or contact electoraloutreach@afn.ca.